Brazil's Supreme Court has convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro of plotting a coup to overturn his 2022 election defeat, imposing a 27-year-and-three-month prison sentence in a historic ruling that marks the first time a Brazilian ex-leader has been found guilty of undermining democracy.

The decision came Thursday from a five-justice panel, where four justices voted to convict the 70-year-old far-right leader on all five counts, including leading a coup d'état, participating in an armed criminal organization, attempting to abolish the democratic order through violence, inciting attacks on state institutions, and damaging public property. Only Justice Luiz Fux dissented, arguing for acquittal and a full 11-justice review, though the majority held firm. The court also convicted seven of Bolsonaro's allies, including five military officers, former Defense Minister Walter Braga Netto, and former aide Lt. Col. Mauro Cid.

Prosecutors detailed a conspiracy that began in 2021, aimed at eroding trust in Brazil's electoral system and culminating in plans to assassinate President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, and Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the trial. The plot reportedly involved explosives, war weapons, and poison but faltered when the military declined to intervene. This led to the January 8, 2023, storming of Congress, the presidential palace, and the Supreme Court by Bolsonaro supporters—events echoing the U.S. Capitol riot two years earlier—after Lula's inauguration.

Bolsonaro, who served from 2019 to 2022, has been under house arrest since August for violating a social media ban tied to the case. The ruling bars him from public statements, visitor access beyond lawyers, and mobile phone use, with warnings of immediate detention for further breaches. Despite the conviction, he remains ineligible to run for office until 2030 under prior rulings but had eyed a 2026 comeback. Lula, 79, has indicated interest in a fourth term if his health allows.

The verdict drew immediate international reaction. U.S. President Donald Trump, a close ally, called it "very surprising" and likened it to his own legal battles, stating, "It's very much what they tried to do with me, but they didn't get away with it at all." Trump has pressured Brazil through 50% tariffs on its imports, labeling the proceedings a "witch hunt," and observers anticipate further U.S. sanctions that could strain ties between the longtime allies. Bolsonaro's son Eduardo, a senator, echoed claims of political persecution and expects escalated U.S. measures.

Bolsonaro's legal team, led by Celso Villardi, maintains there is no direct evidence linking him to the plot and plans an appeal, potentially to the full Supreme Court. Supporters gathered outside military sites in Brasília, decrying the outcome as biased, while left-wing groups celebrated it as a defense of democracy. Political analyst Camila Rocha noted that Bolsonaro's influence endures, with strategies like electing right-wing senators to impeach key justices or backing a pro-Bolsonaro candidate in 2026.