Gold prices broke new ground on Tuesday, September 9, 2025, soaring past $3,650 per ounce as investors increasingly anticipate a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, while the European Central Bank is expected to maintain steady borrowing costs at its upcoming policy meeting.

The precious metal's surge continued a multi-month streak, with gold up roughly 0.49% to $3,653.51 per ounce by midday trading, building on Monday's record close of $3,653.30.

Year-to-date gains now exceed 38%, outpacing major stock indices and reflecting gold's role as a go-to safe haven in uncertain times.

Traders point to weakening U.S. labor data—August's payrolls added just 22,000 jobs against forecasts of 75,000—as solidifying expectations for the Fed's September 16-17 meeting to deliver at least a quarter-point cut from the current 4.25%-4.50% range, with some now eyeing a half-point move if upcoming inflation figures disappoint.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams have signaled support for gradual easing starting next week, citing rising jobless risks at 4.3%—the highest since 2021—while inflation hovers near the 2% target but faces upward pressure from tariffs.

Markets now price in a near-certainty for a September cut, with futures showing 100% odds for 25 basis points and a 10% chance for 50, potentially followed by more through year-end to reach a neutral 3%-3.25% by 2026. This dovish tilt weakens the dollar, making gold cheaper for overseas buyers and amplifying demand from central banks and investors hedging against economic slowdowns.

Across the Atlantic, the ECB's September 11 decision is set to maintain its benchmark rate at 2.15%, with the deposit facility at 2.00% and marginal lending at 2.40%, unchanged since June's 25-basis-point trim. Policymaker Isabel Schnabel emphasized a "wait-and-see" approach, noting eurozone growth at 0.9% for 2025 holds up despite U.S. tariffs, though inflation could edge higher to 2.0% next year if trade disruptions worsen.

After eight cuts since June 2024, further easing talk has cooled to a 55% chance for December, as resilient data tempers urgency. Silver, gold's sidekick, rose 0.4% to $40.84, its highest since 2011, underscoring broader precious metals momentum.

For families and small investors, these peaks mean windfalls for holders—India's 25,000 tonnes of household gold now worth billions more—but also squeeze buyers facing record costs for jewelry and savings. In Dubai, 22K gold hit Dh408 per gram, while Australian sellers report a rush to cash in.

As global uncertainties like tariffs and geopolitics linger, gold's rally signals deep-seated worries about fiat currencies and debt, even as some economists warn of overbought conditions if cuts materialize slower than hoped.